I expect German GDP to increase by 2.7% in 2018 – up from 2.5% this year. Conditions remain favorable in 2019. The economic fundamentals are solid with record-low unemployment and strong income gains, while the corporate sector is well positioned to tap into a global investment cycle. The strong domestic growth makes Germany less vulnerable to global mood swings.
Inflationary pressures remain moderate as globalization and increased competition have transformed previous labor-inflation dynamics. ECB’s too easy monetary policy is a growing risk.