German businesses are looking to invest in productivity improvement as wage pressures build. Additional demand for housing should push up construction further.
German manufacturing production declined in October, but trend is still fine and new orders indicate weakness is temporary
Even before adding USD1,000 billion to the deficit through tax cuts, the CBO expected deficits to increase in coming years
US Case-Shiller home prices increased 6.2% y/y in September with Seattle still seeing double-digit growth. New York remains the laggard
US consumer confidence is exaggerating economic strength, but upside risks to growth outlook and FED hikes materializing. 4 hikes in 2018?
Euro flash manufacturing PMI strengthen even further in November. A global investment boom is good for European industry – across countries
Personal consumption was the only growth engine in the British economy in Q3 – and only a temporary recovery in auto sales behind that
The spread between WTI and Brent has started to come down. Prices are very supportive of additional US production – should average 10.3 mb/d in 2018
US CPI inflation is all about shelter. I expect less shelter inflation in 2018, so core CPI could actually decline. No pressure from wages
Strong euro area growth in 2018 should push unemployment rate below 8%. Increasingly difficult for Draghi to explain negative deposit rate