US GDP grew by 4.1% q/q (sa ar) in Q2 with exports and private consumption as main drivers. Confidence is strong, but payback likely in Q3
Outstanding debt in Chinese non-financial sectors has grown rapidly during the last decade with most growth in the corporate sector. In the US, total outstanding debt has been stagnant, but public debt has grown rapidly, while households have reduced theirs.
In the UK, net migration from the EU has almost been cut in half since the Brexit referendum (fewer arriving and more leaving), hitting public and private service industries particularly hard. Non-European immigration has increased.
Inflation in the euro area was 2.0% in June, most of it from energy and food. Contribution from services remains half of pre-2008 level.
The dramatic increase in US oil production has provided a structural lift to the overall trade balance.
Global trade (in volumes) has weakened substantially in the last months, but it comes on the back of a strong run. With increasing trade skirmishes – also affecting corporate behavior – trade is likely to remain weak
US auto sales remain strong, but with all of the increase is in SUVs/trucks; car sales continue to decline. SUVs/trucks have higher profit margins – and domestic production has been protected by 25% tariffs since 1964. Reciprocal trade?
PMIs have generally picked up in June compared to May. For euro area, it is the more domestic service sector (and construction) seeing improvement, while manufacturing remains under pressure. Trade disputes and possible weaker final demand are weighting on confidence
US crude oil export last week reached highest level ever. Partly responsible for large decline in inventories
Oil production in Brazil and Canada is increasing, adding to global supply. Chinese production is declining and more oil imports are needed