Italian manufacturing PMI declined sharply to 50.1 in August, thus indicating a further slowing of the Italian economy. Business investments are likely to be restrained amid rising yields, falling equity prices and heightened political uncertainty
Canada is President Trump favorite trade villain on Twitter – even though the US only has a small trade deficit in goods with Canada and a large service-surplus. “decades of abuse”?
As a reminder of what lies ahead for several EM-countries, inflation in Turkey rose to 18% in August with more to come. Producer prices increased 32%; business confidence is indicating recession
US soy bean prices remain subdued, suggesting that additional demand from EU has not offset the decline in Chinese demand following introduction of tariffs
Upward trend in German composite PMI continues, but weakness in manufacturing. Export orders lowest in 2 years and inflation pressures building, particularly for services, according to Markit. Consistent with a tight labor market.
It is quite remarkable Germany is now close to having the lowest inflation rate of EUR-big4, despite more than full employment and rising wage costs. For France and Italy it is a sign of persisting structural rigidities, also holding back the potential for growth
Turkey is fast approaching a breaking point and is now dragging down other EM-currencies as investors liquidate positions. This is a systemic crisis.
Large decline in German manufacturing orders in June – primarily caused by investment goods and from the domestic market and euro area. Seasonality could be a factor, but it is not a very good sign after a weak period.
Annual growth in US manufacturing employment is now close to 300K – the highest since the 1990s. Production is more diverse with food adding jobs (a lot of low-productivity artisan foodshops), which is also a reflect of changing household spending habits
The relationship between US economic growth and unemployment remains pretty stable after a period of unusually large declines in the unemployment rate