Is the European glass half full or half empty?

Confidence indicators in the euro area have weakened during winter, but levels are still healthy. Economic fundamentals are strengthening with declining unemployment. GDP-growth looks to stay above 2%, and ECB to take further steps towards normalization from mid-2018.¬†Dependence of foreign demand and lack of labor are increasing risks.   Report: Is the European glass half…

Lower inventories support oil prices

Brent crude oil prices are now above USD70 per barrel (70 d/b) as regional tensions in the Middle East have increased supply concerns. However, prices have been moving up since last summer, when demand began to outstrip supply, prompting a steep reduction in global inventories. Crude-oil inventories in the OECD-countries (the best proxy for global…

Short-term US growth outlook remains favorable

The US economy continues to expand at a moderate pace, although it still exhibits some of the usual Q1 softness (even seasonally adjusted). My GDP-indicator, based on consumer and business confidence, has declined in recent months, but the level still points towards higher growth. Like confidence indicators globally, the surge in late-2017 indicated an increase…