Brexit: Christmas peace, new year’s trouble

Now on to the difficult stuff When the European leaders established that “sufficient progress” had been made on phase 1 of the Brexit negotiations, it marked the end of the beginning of the British withdrawal from the EU. The commitments set out in the Joint Report now have to be fleshed out in the Withdrawal…

United States: Tax cuts lift short-term growth outlook

I have raised the outlook for 2018 by 0.3 percentage points to 3.0% after the tax reform was finalized. The adjustment is mainly a reflection of increased consumption growth, while the net export contribution is turning negative and the trade deficit is set to increase further.   I expect increased labor participation and strong growth in productivity to…

Tax reform is here

The Republican tax reform will be signed by the President this week. The corporate tax is lowered from 35% to 21% with retailers among the big winners. The top individual tax rate is reduced to 37%, but individual tax measures expire in 2026. The repatriation tax rates of 8% and 15.5% are higher than expected.…

France 2018 outlook: cautiously optimistic

By Guest contributor Anna Råman, Independent Economist, annaraman@hotmail.com   The French growth prospects for 2018 are solid and we expect GDP growth of 1.9%, up from 1.8% in 2017.  Exports have gained pace this year and investments are favoured by solid external and domestic demand, easy financing conditions, optimism ahead of major corporate tax cuts…

Upset in Alabama

When pigs fly, hell freezes over, and Democrats win in Alabama…   Democrat Doug Jones won yesterday’s special Senate election in deep-red Alabama by 50-48% over controversial Republican Roy Moore. Jones not only won big among black voters and in the big cities, but also flipped more rural and especially suburban counties. The turnout among…

Germany 2018 outlook: full steam ahead

I expect German GDP to increase by 2.7% in 2018 – up from 2.5% this year. Conditions remain favorable in 2019. The economic fundamentals are solid with record-low unemployment and strong income gains, while the corporate sector is well positioned to tap into a global investment cycle. The strong domestic growth makes Germany less vulnerable…