Production in Iran is tumbling as sanctions begin to bite OPEC+ only able to partly compensate for lower Iranian production…
In the US lower yields have pushed mortgage applications for refinancing to highest level since 2016, allowing newer homeowner to bring down interest expenditure significantly. Good for consumption growth. No effect from lower yields on applications for home purchase yet
Drop in German GDP in Q2 was due to decline in exports, while household and government consumption continues to grow. Construction investments declined, but as overall private investments grew, Q2 should see another quarter of strong corporate investments.
US retail sales had another good month in July, which offers a gentle reminder that the household side of the economy remains strong. Consumer confidence is probably more important as recession indicator than yield curve
Chinese yuan was fixed at 6.9996 against the dollar - pretty much as close to 7 as possible without crossing the line. CNY continues to trade on weak side of 7, so fixing could move further. The exchange rate has now become proxy for the intensity of the trade war #macrobond
Deal or no-deal? PM Boris Johnson has promised to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October. Posturing in London points to a no-deal exit, which has hammered the pound and business confidence. Wishes for a quick UK trade deal with the US are sure to be disappointed #macrobond
