Production in Iran is tumbling as sanctions begin to bite OPEC+ only able to partly compensate for lower Iranian production…
Strong improvement in German ZEW-index. Sentiment (expectations) reached highest level since 2016. Current conditions, which are better at explaining actual GDP-movements, were up as well, although less pronounced. Germany continues to rely heavily on domestic demand #macrobond
IMF has again downgraded its global GDP-growth outlook with an overweight of negative risks. Remarkably, US growth in 2020 was adjusted down to 2.0%. So trade truce, giant Chinese purchases of US goods, as well as lower interest rates and massive fiscal spending have no impact?
China's GDP-growth slowed to 6.1% in 2019; the lowest in almost 3 decades, but within the government's growth target. Trade war added to headwinds, but the Chinese debt-based growth model is also showing strains. However, lower growth rates also reflect a higher starting point
German public investments has grown by more than 3% since 2015 and reached 2.5% of GDP in 2019. This is the highest level since the reunification years. While still running a sizeable budget surplus, the government is simply not as stingy as many analysts are saying #macrobond
While German GDP-growth only reached 0.5% in 2019, it is worth noting the huge negative contribution from inventories. Lower inventories is a precondition for a turnaround in manufacturing production this year. Domestic private and public demand remained pretty strong #macrobond